Metamorphosis 2050: Beyond Density, Crafting an Antifragile Future for African Cities

Abstract

Using Taleb's anti-fragility as a catalyst, our vision seeks to redefine urban re densification through disruptive concepts, reconnecting the triptych of man, habitat, and nature. Our goal is to transform the African  landscape  by  2050  with  unique  models  of  resilience, sustainability, and prosperity. At the core of this process is architecture, art of critique and synthesis, served by pluridisciplinarity. Our approach integrates local expertise, endogenous artifacts, fractals, and ICT, employing gamification in a holonic design process to stimulate impact. In 2003, the World Bank reported that over 60% of Africa's population lived in insecure, informal housing, exposed to various risks. Climate change and inefficient urban infrastructure have further exacerbated this situation. In 2019, the World Bank revealed that the construction sector contributes 10% to global carbon emissions. This perspective yet fails to explain the « success" of the Global   South   against   the   Coronavirus,   contrasting   with   the challenges faced by Western cities despite stringent measures.

This paradox prompts a reevaluation of growth, adopting a more

optimistic perspective on demographics and statistical analysis. For instance, the daily migration of 40,000 people to urban areas (World Bank 2017) annually equates to the surface area development of 48 cities the size of Yaoundé. Cameroon's urbanization rate increased by 3.1% per year between 2000 and 2020, projecting 155% by 2050. These figures are indicative of the entire continent, with estimated need of 700,000,000 housing units before 2050. This transcends mere adaptation; it necessitates the exploitation of socio-economic   resilience,   often   marginalized   by   traditional planning concepts. Leveraging smart tools to measure complex patterns and build one or more anti-fragile ecosystems, fostering bilateral collaboration for enhanced opportunities. The objective is to resist and progress before, during, and aftershocks, shifting from a problem-based approach to one rooted in endogenous solutions.